{"id":111082,"date":"2020-02-08T00:09:19","date_gmt":"2020-02-07T22:09:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ngradio.gr\/?p=111082"},"modified":"2020-02-08T00:19:23","modified_gmt":"2020-02-07T22:19:23","slug":"2020-oscars-predictions-who-will-win-who-should-win-and-who-was-snubbed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ngradio.gr\/en\/cinema-tv\/2020-oscars-predictions-who-will-win-who-should-win-and-who-was-snubbed\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 Oscars predictions: Who will win, who should win, and who was snubbed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Who will win? Who deserves to win? Who was snubbed? We break everything down before the big night on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\nIf you\u2019re looking for an edge on your office Oscar pool before the 92nd Academy Awards this Sunday on ABC at 8 p.m., there are three things you should know: the favorites win the majority of the time, the guilds representing the various branches of Academy voters usually know best, and no one truly knows what\u2019s going on with the Best Picture category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since expanding the field to up to 10 movies for the 82nd Academy Awards in 2009, the Academy Award for Best Picture has become significantly harder to predict. Unlike the other 23 awards, the Academy also began using ranked choice voting<\/a> to determine the Best Picture winner in 2009, with voters able to list up to five of the nominees in order of preference. That\u2019s led to some surprising wins in recent years, from \u201cSpotlight\u201d besting \u201cThe Revenant\u201d<\/a> to the chaos that ensued<\/a> when \u201cMoonlight\u201d upset runaway favorite \u201cLa La Land.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year, it feels like a two-movie race between \u201c1917\u201d and \u201cParasite,\u201d with both movies winning a number of the earlier awards that typically bode well for Best Picture nominees. But because awards balloting is secret, we can only make educated guesses on the movies that consistently finished second or third during awards season, which could indicate a dark horse candidate on a ranked choice ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To help you make sense of this year\u2019s Academy Awards \u2014 as well as give you some of my own personal picks as Boston.com\u2019s chief movie scribe \u2014 here are my thoughts on the biggest categories at the 2020 Oscars, including who I think will win, who I wish would win, and who was snubbed of a deserving nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Actor<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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The nominees:<\/strong> Antonio Banderas (\u201cPain and Glory\u201d), Leonardo DiCaprio (\u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood\u201d), Adam Driver (\u201cMarriage Story\u201d), Joaquin Phoenix (\u201cJoker\u201d), Jonathan Pryce (\u201cThe Two Popes\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my personal ranking of the Best Picture nominees, \u201cJoker\u201d is on the lower half of the list. It\u2019s repetitive, reductive, and offers trite social commentary you might hear from a nihilistic freshman philosophy major or your least favorite friend on Facebook. None of that is the fault of Phoenix, however, who pours every ounce of himself into tormented clown Arthur Fleck. If \u201cJoker\u201d wins just one of the 11 awards for which it\u2019s nominated, it should be for Phoenix\u2019s performance. And based on his sweep of the four awards traditionally most relevant to the Oscar acting categories (Screen Actors Guild, Critics\u2019 Choice, Golden Globes, British Academy Film Awards), it\u2019s Phoenix\u2019s race to lose. Consider this a makeup award for an actor who remains Oscar-less despite deserving performances in movies like \u201cHer,\u201d \u201cThe Master,\u201d \u201cYou Were Never Really Here,\u201d \u201cInherent Vice,\u201d and \u201cWalk the Line.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a strong group of nominees, I still wish the Academy had found a way to nominate Adam Sandler for his outsized performance as Manhattan jeweler Howard Ratner in \u201cUncut Gems.\u201d Even as you cringe with each ruinous life decision Ratner makes, you can\u2019t look away from Sandler, who hits a career high in the Safdie Brothers film.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Win:<\/strong> Joaquin Phoenix (\u201cJoker\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Win:<\/strong> Phoenix<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was Snubbed:<\/strong> Adam Sandler (\u201cUncut Gems\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Actress<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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The nominees:<\/strong> Cynthia Erivo (\u201cHarriet\u201d), Scarlett Johansson (\u201cMarriage Story\u201d), Saoirse Ronan (\u201cLittle Women\u201d), Charlize Theron (\u201cBombshell\u201d), Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (\u201cJudy\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another stacked category with no weak links to speak of, Ren\u00e9e Zellweger\u2019s take on Judy Garland at the end of her career in \u201cJudy\u201d is this year\u2019s rightful frontrunner. Zellweger, who like Phoenix won every major award so far this winter, is utterly captivating from the moment she first appears on screen. She doesn\u2019t shy away from the ugly truth of Garland\u2019s final months, showing how the impulsive, needy, and unreliable screen star was left penniless and utterly broken by the Hollywood studio system that chewed her up and spit her out as a teenager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Missing from the crop of nominees is Awkwafina, who was a revelation in \u201cThe Farewell.\u201d As an aspiring young Chinese-American writer living in New York who must travel to China when her grandmother is diagnosed with cancer  \u2014 and then must accept her family\u2019s decision not to inform her grandmother of said diagnosis \u2014 the actress is alternately defiant, heartbroken, and ultimately accepting as she copes with her grief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Win:<\/strong> Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (\u201cJudy\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Win:<\/strong> Zellweger<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was Snubbed:<\/strong> Awkwafina (\u201cThe Farewell\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Supporting Actor<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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The nominees:<\/strong> Tom Hanks (\u201cA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood\u201d), Anthony Hopkins (\u201cThe Two Popes\u201d), Al Pacino (\u201cThe Irishman\u201d), Joe Pesci (\u201cThe Irishman\u201d), Brad Pitt (\u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brad Pitt is less of a supporting actor in \u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood\u201d and more like a co-lead with Leonardo DiCaprio. That said, this is Pitt\u2019s award to lose: he swept the aforementioned prerequisite awards, he\u2019s never won an acting Oscar, and America will likely never tire of seeing him playing slight variations on his bemused and effortlessly cool persona. If I had my way, I would love to see Joe Pesci take this award for his uncharacteristically reserved performance in \u201cThe Irishman.\u201d Instead of  leaning into the blisteringly angry energy he cultivated in films like \u201cGoodfellas,\u201d \u201cCasino,\u201d and even the \u201cHome Alone\u201d movies, he leaves the scene-chewing to his fellow nominee Al Pacino. As Pesci shuffles back into unofficial retirement, it would be nice to send him on his way with some hardware.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking of scene-chewing, it would have been nice to see the Academy show some love to Daniel Craig hamming it up as detective Benoit Blanc in \u201cKnives Out.\u201d The British actor clearly relished every syllable of country-fried dialogue he was given in Rian Johnson\u2019s film, adding yet another element of fun to this endlessly enjoyable whodunnit shot in Massachusetts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Win:<\/strong> Brad Pitt (\u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Win:<\/strong> Joe Pesci (\u201cThe Irishman\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was Snubbed: <\/strong>Daniel Craig (\u201cKnives Out\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Supporting Actress<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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The nominees:<\/strong> Kathy Bates (\u201cRichard Jewell\u201d), Laura Dern (\u201cMarriage Story\u201d), Scarlett Johansson (\u201cJojo Rabbit\u201d), Florence Pugh (\u201cLittle Women\u201d), Margot Robbie (\u201cBombshell\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the Supporting Actress Oscar covered a years\u2019 worth of performances, Dern would be my pick based on the combined strength of her turns in \u201cMarriage Story\u201d and \u201cLittle Women.\u201d And she\u2019ll almost certainly win, as she swept the SAGs, Globes, BAFTAs, and CCAs just like the other three frontrunners. That said, my single favorite supporting actress performance this year came from Florence Pugh, for her covetous, cantankerous Amy March in \u201cLittle Women.\u201d Saoirse Ronan\u2019s Jo is rightfully the focus of the film, but Pugh ultimately steals the show. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Easily the most stunning snub when the nominations were announced last month was the lack of a nomination for Jennifer Lopez in \u201cHustlers.\u201d The singer\/actress completely outshines nominal lead actress Constance Wu in the strippers-gone-bad film, and earned nominations from the Globes, CCA, and SAG. What gives, Academy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Win:<\/strong> Laura Dern (\u201cMarriage Story\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Win:<\/strong> Florence Pugh (\u201cLittle Women\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was Snubbed:<\/strong> Jennifer Lopez (\u201cHustlers\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Director<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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The nominees:<\/strong> Martin Scorsese (\u201cThe Irishman\u201d), Todd Phillips (\u201cJoker\u201d), Sam Mendes (\u201c1917\u201d), Quentin Tarantino (\u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood\u201d), Bong Joon-ho (\u201cParasite\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of me hopes that the Academy gives this to Scorsese, an all-time great director who faced a torrent of criticism for his assertion that superhero movies aren\u2019t cinema and only has one Best Director Oscar to his name, for \u201cThe Departed.\u201d The likely winner here is Mendes, who has taken home wins from the Directors Guild, Globes, and BAFTAs. For the Critics\u2019 Choice directing award, Mendes tied with \u201cParasite\u201d director Bong Joon-ho, who would get my (non-existent) Oscar vote. The South Korean filmmaker is a master of twisted class parables, and the number of shots that stick with you well after the credits roll in \u201cParasite\u201d can\u2019t be counted on two hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or maybe I wouldn\u2019t cast my hypothetical ballot at all, to protest the fact that Greta Gerwig\u2019s incredible work on \u201cLittle Women\u201d went unrecognized by the Academy. Gerwig somehow managed to make significant changes to Louisa May Alcott\u2019s novel while still preserving the spirit of the book in every way. In a less-capable director\u2019s hands, the narrative jumping back and forth in time could have been muddled and confusing. Gerwig not only made it work, but enhanced and refreshed a story that has been told many times before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Win:<\/strong> Sam Mendes (\u201c1917\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Win:<\/strong> Bong Joon-ho (\u201cParasite\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was Snubbed:<\/strong> Greta Gerwig (\u201cLittle Women\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Original Screenplay<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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The Nominees:<\/strong> \u201cKnives Out\u201d (Rian Johnson), \u201cMarriage Story\u201d (Noah Baumbach), \u201c1917\u201d (Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns), \u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood\u201d (Quentin Tarantino), \u201cParasite\u201d (Bong Joon-ho, Han Jin Won)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The four major awards for original screenplay were split between \u201cParasite\u201d (Writers Guild Awards, BAFTA) and \u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood\u201d (Critics\u2019 Choice, Golden Globes). When in doubt, it\u2019s best to follow the lead of the Writers Guild in matters of screenwriting, so I suspect \u201cParasite\u201d will pull this off. That said, I\u2019m a sucker for a good mystery, and Rian Johnson\u2019s \u201cKnives Out\u201d had me hooked from the first minute. What began as a simple line graph<\/a> scrawled in Johnson\u2019s Moleskine became a twisting narrative chock-full of punchlines and one-liners that had me leaving the theater positively giddy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for a movie that I wish had made the field, New Hampshire natives Robert and Max Eggers\u2019 script for \u201cThe Lighthouse\u201d reads like Herman Melville\u2019s long-lost attempt at playwriting, with Willem Dafoe embodying the mad seafarer Captain Ahab in every line. (A24 was kind enough to post the script online<\/a>, and it\u2019s worth a read if you have the time.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Win:<\/strong> \u201cParasite\u201d (Bong Joon-ho, Han Jin Won)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Win:<\/strong> \u201cKnives Out\u201d (Rian Johnson)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was Snubbed:<\/strong> \u201cThe Lighthouse\u201d (Robbert Eggers, Max Eggers)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Adapted Screenplay<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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The nominees:<\/strong> \u201cThe Irishman\u201d (Steven Zaillian), \u201cJojo Rabbit\u201d (Taika Waititi), \u201cJoker\u201d (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver), \u201cLittle Women\u201d (Greta Gerwig), \u201cThe Two Popes\u201d (Anthony McCarten)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In case you couldn\u2019t tell from the preceding paragraphs, I adored \u201cLittle Women,\u201d which has a fighting chance in this category thanks to winning two significant screenwriting awards (Critics\u2019 Choice, USC Scripter Awards) this season. The other two have gone to \u201cJojo Rabbit\u201d (WGA, BAFTA), the Hitler youth dramedy from New Zealand writer-director Taika Waititi, who also plays the film\u2019s imaginary F\u00fchrer. The WGA is usually the strongest indicator of Oscar success, so I suspect the Academy will favor \u201cJojo\u201d over \u201cLittle Women,\u201d unfortunately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not sure any screenplay was truly \u201crobbed\u201d by being omitted from this category, but a sixth I wouldn\u2019t have minded seeing was \u201cA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.\u201d Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster took what could have been a safe, by-the-numbers biopic of a beloved figure and tried something new, adding fourth-wall breaks and trippy dream sequences throughout. It doesn\u2019t always work, but it is an admirable effort to shake up a staid genre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Win:<\/strong> \u201cJojo Rabbit\u201d (Taika Waititi)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Win:<\/strong> \u201cLittle Women\u201d (Greta Gerwig)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was Snubbed:<\/strong> \u201cA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood\u201d (Micah Fitzerman-Blue, Noah Harpster)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Picture<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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The nominees:<\/strong> \u201cFord v Ferrari,\u201d \u201cThe Irishman,\u201d \u201cJojo Rabbit,\u201d \u201cJoker,\u201d \u201cLittle Women,\u201d \u201cMarriage Story,\u201d \u201c1917,\u201d \u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood,\u201d \u201cParasite\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before dissecting this category, I\u2019m going to stump once more for \u201cThe Farewell\u201d as the movie most deserving of a Best Picture nod that didn\u2019t receive one. The understated but powerful studio debut from Lulu Wang gave American viewers a window into a culture not well-represented in American film, but told a story that is universally resonant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As noted above, Best Picture is widely seen as a two-film race between \u201c1917\u201d and \u201cParasite.\u201d Sam Mendes\u2019 World War I drama is the presumptive frontrunner after wins from the Producers Guild Awards, Golden Globes, and BAFTAs. But \u201cParasite\u201d has also won its fair share, winning top prizes from the Screen Actors Guild and top foreign film awards from the Globes and BAFTAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond their respective wins, both \u201c1917\u201d and \u201cParasite\u201d have data points that support and detract from their chances. \u201cParasite\u201d has won the top awards from the vast majority of critic groups<\/a>, but of the 12 foreign language movies that have been nominated for Best Picture in the past, zero have taken home the trophy. \u201c1917\u201d has won nearly every award expected of Best Picture frontrunners, but it would also be the first Best Picture winner in 88 years to not receive any acting or editing nominations, joining 1932\u2019s \u201cGrand Hotel.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oddly, \u201cParasite\u201d actually fits the profile of a ranked choice Best Picture winner better than \u201c1917\u201d in terms of box office. Since 2009, only \u201cArgo\u201d and \u201cThe King\u2019s Speech\u201d grossed more than $100 million in domestic box office (DBO) among Best Picture winners. Every other winner in that timeframe except for \u201cGreen Book\u201d ranks among the 15 lowest-grossing Best Picture winners of all time<\/a>, adjusted for inflation. That would seem to favor \u201cParasite\u201d ($33.2 million DBO) over \u201c1917\u201d ($121.5 million).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cParasite\u201d was my favorite movie of 2019, so I will be over the moon if it wins the top award. But \u201c1917\u201d has so much going for it, I find it hard to bet against. I\u2019ve changed my pick four times now, and would probably keep flip-flopping until the night of the ceremony if my editor let me hold off on publishing this article until 7:59 p.m. on Sunday. I\u2019m a cynic at heart (aren\u2019t most critics?), but I\u2019m going to try to use positive thinking to manifest my desired reality: \u201cParasite\u201d makes history with an upset win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Win: <\/strong>\u201cParasite\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Win:<\/strong> \u201cParasite\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was Snubbed:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cThe Farewell\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: boston.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Who will win? Who deserves to win? Who was snubbed? We break everything down before the big night on Sunday. If you\u2019re looking for an edge on your office Oscar pool before the 92nd Academy Awards this Sunday on ABC at 8 p.m., there are three things you should know: ...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":111103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13867],"tags":[7197,5116,4673],"class_list":["post-111082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cinema-tv","tag-award","tag-nominees","tag-oscars-en"],"acf":false,"yoast_head":"\n2020 Oscars predictions: Who will win, who should win, and who was snubbed - NGradio.gr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ngradio.gr\/en\/cinema-tv\/2020-oscars-predictions-who-will-win-who-should-win-and-who-was-snubbed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2020 Oscars predictions: Who will win, who should win, and who was snubbed - NGradio.gr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Who will win? 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