Any of the five can win this year.<\/p>\n
Anyone who says they \u201cknow\u201d who will win the Oscar for best actress is not living in reality. It\u2019s a rarity to use a term such as, \u201cany of the five can win it\u201d without making it sound clich\u00e9 in awards prognostication lingo. But that\u2019s where we are as we head into the final stretch.<\/p>\n
In the last 27 years, where all the pre-Oscar televised award shows have co-existed \u2013 Critics Choice, Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA \u2013 we\u2019ve never seen a different winner in the actress category at every stop. The Golden Globe went with Andra Day (\u201cThe United States vs. Billie Holiday\u201d) while Carey Mulligan (\u201cPromising Young Woman\u201d) took Critics Choice. The SAG Awards chose Viola Davis (\u201cMa Rainey\u2019s Black Bottom\u201d) and the upcoming BAFTA has only two of the other actress nominees up for consideration: Vanessa Kirby (\u201cPieces of a Woman\u201d) and Frances McDormand (\u201cNomadland\u201d). Kirby seems to be the favorite to win that prize.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s a look at what\u2019s in each of the nominees\u2019 favor:<\/p>\n
Viola Davis<\/p>\n
Pro: Of the five nominees, she has the prize that has the best correlation to the Academy Awards. Eight of the last 10 SAG actress winners went on to win the Oscars \u2013 minus Glenn Close (\u201cThe Wife\u201d) and, coincidentally, Davis\u2019 for \u201cThe Help.\u201d There is also an added narrative that Halle Berry (\u201cMonster\u2019s Ball\u201d) is still the only Black woman to win a lead prize 20 years ago, and it\u2019s time to change that statistic.<\/p>\n
Con: No film has ever won two lead acting prizes without being nominated for picture. If Davis\u2019 co-star Chadwick Boseman is as \u201clocked\u201d as many believe, she could be the one to be pushed out.<\/p>\n
Andra Day<\/p>\n
Pro: Playing a real-life person (and entertainment legend) is Oscar-bait to the fullest and she does her own singing.<\/p>\n
Con: Only two women in the last 20 years have been the sole nomination for their film \u2013 Julianne Moore in \u201cStill Alice\u201d (2014) and Charlize Theron in \u201cMonster\u201d (2003). When more than half of the Academy\u2019s membership are in the artisan categories, will enough of them make the time to watch the film, which is streaming on Hulu, before voting?<\/p>\n
Vanessa Kirby<\/p>\n
Pro: By delivering a brave, lived-in performance, the English actress could appeal to the international Academy voters.<\/p>\n
Con: She\u2019s the only nomination for her film, and probably has the most \u201cdifficult\u201d one to watch for voters.<\/p>\n
Frances McDormand<\/p>\n
Pro: She\u2019s the lead performance of the best picture frontrunner, and is the first woman to be nominated for producing and acting in the same year.<\/p>\n
Con: She\u2019s won two Oscars already (\u201cFargo\u201d and \u201cThree Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri\u201d) and has hardly campaigned. People who have won their second or third acting Oscars typically don\u2019t win on a \u201csurprise.\u201d<\/p>\n
Carey Mulligan<\/p>\n
Pro: Second in precursor wins this season, she\u2019s been seen as a packaged deal with Emerald Fennell, who looks likely to win original screenplay after the WGA awards.<\/p>\n
Con: Did \u201cPromising Young Woman\u201d peak too early? This could be a \u201cLady Bird\u201d situation, where a film has a very strong phase one but by Oscar night, it fails to take home any statuettes.<\/p>\n
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