{"id":78097,"date":"2018-03-02T19:11:47","date_gmt":"2018-03-02T17:11:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ngradio.gr\/?p=78097\/"},"modified":"2018-03-02T19:11:47","modified_gmt":"2018-03-02T17:11:47","slug":"will-win-oscars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ngradio.gr\/en\/news-el\/entertainment\/will-win-oscars\/","title":{"rendered":"What Will Win at the Oscars?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As I noted in my end-of-the-year\u00a0movie wrap-up<\/a>\u00a0(which in addition to my top-10 list included such idiosyncratic awards as \u201cBest Letter Writer\u201d and \u201cMost Successful Mushroom Recipe\u201d), 2017 was an excellent year for film. And, for the most part, I think the Academy did a good job when it came to Oscar nominations. Four of my top five movies of the year were nominated for Best Picture, and of them I think three have a genuine shot.<\/p>\n

Now for the bad news: Of the top-10 Oscar categories, eight seem (strong emphasis on the word\u00a0seem<\/em>) close to sewn up. As someone who\u00a0nailed nine out of the 10<\/a>\u00a0categories last year\u2014and appeared destined for a clean sweep until\u00a0La La Land<\/em><\/a>\u2019s ceremony-closing Best Picture win was retroactively redistributed to\u00a0Moonlight<\/em>\u2014I\u2019m feeling decent about my odds.<\/p>\n

But the good news for Oscar viewers (which is consequently bad news for my predictions) is that one of the two remaining races is for Best Picture, which is a more confusing competition than in any prior year I can recall. Typically, by now there\u2019s either a clear frontrunner or the competition has come down to two plausible candidates, generally one more safe\/mainstream and one more interesting\/edgy. The overall safety-edginess varies, from years in which both films are relatively mainstream (Titanic\u00a0<\/em>versus\u00a0L.A. Confidential<\/em>) to ones in which they\u2019re relatively unusual (La La Land\u00a0<\/em>versus\u00a0Moonlight<\/em>). But the breakdown customarily holds.<\/p>\n

I spent months assuming that at some point,\u00a0Dunkirk<\/em>\u00a0(a tremendous film<\/a>) or\u00a0The Post<\/em>\u00a0(a solid one that seemed\u00a0custom-engineered for Hollywood awards season<\/a>) would capture that mainstream slot. But this year, there\u00a0is\u00a0<\/em>no mainstream slot. Both of the presumed frontrunners feel like challengers:\u00a0The Shape of Water<\/em><\/a>, with its offbeat fantasy, sudden violence, and, um, interspecies sex; and\u00a0Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri<\/em><\/a>, which delights in confounding viewer expectations and has endured controversies about an ill-conceived racial subplot. Even the strongest dark-horse alternatives, Get Out<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0Lady Bird<\/em>, are decidedly indie. To put it in numbers, of the four most-likely Best Picture winners, only one\u2014Get Out<\/em>, at No. 15\u2014cracked the top 49 movies in 2017 domestic box office. (The<\/em>\u00a0Shape of Water<\/em>\u00a0snuck into the No. 50 spot.)<\/p>\n

So, in a change from my usual format, I\u2019m saving Best Picture for last: in part because, like the ceremony itself, I want to make you stick around to the end; and in part because, as I write this introduction, I still have almost no idea what to pick. Onward.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Best Actress<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water<\/em>), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri<\/em>), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya<\/em>), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird<\/em>), Meryl Streep (The Post<\/em>)<\/p>\n

McDormand has been the favorite ever since her first scene with Woody Harrelson in\u00a0Three Billboards<\/em>, and rightly so. Far too many people have tried to pigeonhole her Mildred Hayes as a feminist icon or straightforward heroine, but that gives the role, and her performance, too little credit. She is a woman who has been deeply damaged\u2014by an abusive husband even before her daughter\u2019s murder\u2014and who now feels entitled to commit some damage herself, regardless of the culpability of those (men) in her crosshairs. Hers is a cry of revolt against a world in which shitty things happen, all too often against women, every single day. Her performance is both without vanity, and without the aggressive anti-vanity (Charlize Theron\u2019s weight gain for\u00a0Monster<\/em>, Nicole Kidman\u2019s Pinocchio nose for\u00a0The Hours<\/em>) that accompanies many bids for this award. She never seems to be pretending to be anyone but who she is.<\/p>\n

I feel a little bad for a magically mute Sally Hawkins and a Margot Robbie whose character seemed about one twist of unhappy fate short of McDormand\u2019s transcendental ire. Saoirse Ronan was very good in (the to-my-mind somewhat overrated)\u00a0Lady Bird<\/em>. And Meryl Streep bears the unfair handicap that she\u2019s given us so many marvels over the years that anything short of a masterpiece seems par for the course. If you must bet for an upset, bet for Ronan and a big\u00a0Lady Bird<\/em>moment, or perhaps Hawkins and a\u00a0Shape of Water\u00a0<\/em>sweep. But I wouldn\u2019t advise betting for an upset.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

<\/div>\n
Who will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Frances McDormand<\/p>\n

Who ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Frances McDormand<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Best Actor<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name<\/em>), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread<\/em><\/a>), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out<\/em>), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour<\/em>), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Another nomination (please get accustomed to reading this) that seems close to a lock. Endless attention has gone to the Churchillian jowls designed for Gary Oldman by makeup maestro Kazuhiro Tsuji. But even without those glorious hams somehow embedded in his cheeks, Oldman gave a remarkable performance\u2014one that I fear has been unfairly discounted by the emphasis on his prostheses. Yes, the bit about Churchill finally finding his backbone after talking to \u201cordinary\u201d commuters on a train is irritatingly ahistorical rubbish. But\u00a0Darkest Hour<\/em>\u00a0was a solid film held in orbit entirely by Oldman\u2019s mandibularly enhanced gravity.<\/p>\n

His strongest competition would have been Daniel Day-Lewis, had\u00a0Phantom Thread\u00a0<\/em>received any kind of meaningful rollout. (He rightly remains, when he and his studio try, the Golden State Warriors of any Best Actor race.) Daniel Kaluuya offers the likeliest possibility of an upset, but it\u2019s very close to no likelihood at all. Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet\u2019s nomination is mostly a marker for the career that may lie ahead of him. And if I were Denzel Washington, I\u2019d be moderately insulted to be nominated for\u00a0Roman J. Israel, Esq<\/em>. He\u2019s far beyond the point when he needs to add anything this underwhelming to his resume.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

Who will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Gary Oldman<\/p>\n

Who ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Maybe\u00a0<\/em>Daniel Day-Lewis? But with an all-time record three Best Actors to his name already, he seems in a mood to share. And Oldman is plenty deserving.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Best Supporting Actor<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project<\/em>), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri<\/em>), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water<\/em>), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World<\/em>), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri<\/em>)<\/p>\n

This may be the category in which I find myself most conflicted. I\u2019ve been stewing for almost 20 years over the Academy\u2019s failure to nominate (and award) Christopher Plummer for his magisterial performance as Mike Wallace in Michael Mann\u2019s 1999\u00a0The Insider.<\/em>\u00a0It is, with\u00a0Spotlight\u00a0<\/em>and\u00a0All the President\u2019s Men<\/em>, one of the few genuinely great movies about journalism. And Plummer is superlative, not opting for mimicry\u2014as actors too often do when playing contemporary figures\u2014but digging down to find the soul of a man, however conflicted. (I could watch\u00a0this scene<\/a>, in which Plummer evolves from loyal corporate soldier to\u2014temporarily\u2014outraged revolutionary, for hours.) Alas, his last-minute save of a fired Kevin Spacey in\u00a0All the Money in the World<\/em>notwithstanding, it\u2019s hard to imagine this being Plummer\u2019s year.<\/p>\n

For a while, this seemed like a two-man race between Dafoe and Rockwell, but momentum for\u00a0The Florida Project<\/em>\u00a0has been waning for months. (A shame: If you haven\u2019t seen it, you should.) The race now seems very much Rockwell\u2019s to lose. This mostly makes me happy, as I\u2019ve waited for years for Rockwell to be recognized. (Would\u00a0Moon\u00a0<\/em>do the trick? Would\u00a0The Way Way Back<\/em><\/a>?) That said, it\u2019s Harrelson\u2019s smaller, but stunning role in\u00a0Three Billboards\u00a0<\/em>that ultimately lingers more for me\u2014as strong a performance as I\u2019ve ever seen from him. He won\u2019t win, but maybe, just maybe, he should.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

Who will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Sam Rockwell<\/p>\n

Who ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Talk amongst yourselves.<\/p>\n\"\"<\/picture>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

Best Supporting Actress<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>Mary J. Blige (Mudbound<\/em>), Allison Janney (I, Tonya<\/em>), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread<\/em>), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird<\/em>), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Another race that initially looked close between Janney and Metcalf, but seems to have broken decisively for the former. It\u2019s a strong Supporting Actress field overall\u2014which, tellingly and disappointingly, is often not the case\u2014and in a different year Blige or even Spencer might have snuck in. But Janney\u2019s Mom From Hell in\u00a0I, Tonya<\/em>\u00a0is the clear favorite at this point, with Metcalf\u2019s Mom From Not-Quite-Hell the only probable challenger. If you\u2019re looking for an upset, Metcalf\u2019s bid is stronger than most this year.<\/p>\n

Who will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Allison Janney<\/p>\n

Who ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Allison Janney<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Best Director<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread<\/em>), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird<\/em>), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk<\/em>), Jordan Peele (Get Out<\/em>), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water<\/em>)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s borderline remarkable that Christopher Nolan has never before been nominated for Best Director. I had long assumed that this fact\u2014along with the\u00a0directorial high-wire act<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0Dunkirk\u00a0<\/em>posed\u2014would make him a frontrunner in this category, especially with\u00a0Three Billboards<\/em>\u2019 Martin McDonagh having failed to receive a nomination. But the beneficiary of McDonagh\u2019s exclusion appears to have been del Toro, who is yet another heavy favorite to walk home with the hardware. If you\u2019re looking for a big upset, bet Nolan; if you\u2019re looking for a\u00a0really<\/em>big upset, bet Gerwig or Peele. If you\u2019re firmly committed to getting this category wrong, bet Anderson.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

Who will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Guillermo del Toro<\/p>\n

Who ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Christopher Nolan<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Best Cinematography<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049<\/em>), Bruno Delbonnel (Darkest Hour<\/em>), Hoyte van Hoytema (Dunkirk<\/em>), Dan Laustsen (The Shape of Water<\/em>), Rachel Morrison (Mudbound<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Far stranger even than the fact that Christopher Nolan has never been nominated for Best Director is the fact that Roger Deakins has been nominated for Best Cinematography 14 times\u2014yes, you read that right, 14 times\u2014and has\u00a0never won<\/em>. That will change this year. That\u00a0has<\/em>\u00a0to change this year. He is the preeminent cinematographer of our time. (A very, very short list of his notable films includes\u00a0The Shawshank Redemption<\/em>,\u00a0Fargo<\/em><\/a>,\u00a0No Country for Old Men<\/em><\/a>,\u00a0Revolutionary Road<\/em>,\u00a0Skyfall<\/em><\/a>, and\u00a0Sicario<\/em><\/a>.) And whether or not you liked\u00a0Blade Runner 2049<\/em>as much as I did<\/a>\u2014sadly, most did not\u2014it was a visual marvel. If someone else wins, it will likely be Hoytema. That said, if someone else wins, I firmly expect a righteous but vengeful God to smite the Dolby Theatre into ruins, rendering the entire ceremony largely moot.<\/p>\n

Who will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Roger Deakins<\/p>\n

Who ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>ROGER DEAKINS<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Best Original Screenplay<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>The Big Sick<\/em>\u00a0(Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani),\u00a0Get Out<\/em>\u00a0(Jordan Peele),\u00a0Lady Bird<\/em>\u00a0(Greta Gerwig),\u00a0The Shape of Water<\/em>\u00a0(Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor),\u00a0Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri\u00a0<\/em>(Martin McDonagh)<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

At last, a close race! Or at least one can hope so.\u00a0Get Out\u00a0<\/em>and\u00a0Three Billboards<\/em>\u00a0are the consensus frontrunners here, with the former probably a slight favorite. My guess is that it will prevail, in part because it was critically loved and (on its scale) a remarkable financial success. Plus, this is the category in which it has the clearest shot at a win. Still,\u00a0Three Billboards<\/em>\u00a0is in the running, and I wouldn\u2019t rule out\u00a0Lady Bird<\/em>\u00a0entirely. As is far too often the case, this is a year in which one of the screenwriting categories\u2014in this case, this one\u2014is vastly stronger than the other. I think any of these five nominees would have had a strong shot to win if it had been in the Adapted Screenplay category.<\/p>\n

What ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Get Out<\/em><\/p>\n

What will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Get Out<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Best Adapted Screenplay<\/h4>\n

Nominees<\/strong>:\u00a0Call Me by Your Name<\/em>\u00a0(James Ivory),\u00a0The Disaster Artist<\/em>\u00a0(Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber),\u00a0Logan<\/em>\u00a0(Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green),\u00a0Molly\u2019s Game<\/em>\u00a0(Aaron Sorkin),\u00a0Mudbound<\/em>\u00a0(Virgil Williams, Dee Rees)<\/p>\n

Call Me by Your Name\u00a0<\/em>is the runaway favorite here. Who in the world wouldn\u2019t want 89-year-old James Ivory (of\u00a0Merchant Ivory<\/a>\u00a0fame) to have one more moment of cinematic glory? Plus, as noted above, the competition is pretty weak. Sorkin was badly off his game with\u00a0Molly\u2019s Game<\/em>.\u00a0Logan\u00a0<\/em>was an excellent superhero movie but not\u00a0that\u00a0<\/em>excellent. And so on. If anything can challenge Ivory\u2019s script, it\u2019s that of\u00a0Mudbound<\/em>. But I definitely wouldn\u2019t bet on it.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

What will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Call Me by Your Name<\/em><\/p>\n

What ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Call Me by Your Name<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Best Animated Feature Film<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>The\u00a0<\/em>Boss Baby<\/em>,\u00a0The Breadwinner,\u00a0Coco<\/a>, Ferdinand<\/em>,\u00a0Loving Vincent<\/em><\/p>\n

This is probably the easiest call of the entire bunch.\u00a0Ferdinand? The Boss Baby??<\/em>C\u2019mon.\u00a0The Breadwinner<\/em>\u00a0or\u00a0Loving Vincent<\/em>? The last time an arty foreign film won was in 2003, the second year the category even existed, with Hayao Miyazaki\u2019s\u00a0Spirited Away<\/em>. But the truly easy lesson here is this: If Pixar makes an average-to-above-average Pixar movie, it will win the Oscar. And while we can argue about which is better between\u00a0Coco\u00a0<\/em>and\u00a0Inside Out<\/em><\/a>\u00a0(I take\u00a0Coco<\/em>), the two are clearly Pixar\u2019s best since\u00a0Toy Story 3<\/em>\u00a0in 2010. I say this as a\u00a0very sad Pixar declinist who recognizes how quickly corporate sibling Disney Studios is catching up<\/a>. (I\u2019m quite confident there\u2019s a reason Disney didn\u2019t release\u00a0Coco<\/em>\u00a0opposite\u00a0Moana<\/em><\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0Zootopia<\/em><\/a>, and vice versa.) Regardless,\u00a0Coco<\/em>\u00a0wins without looking back.<\/p>\n

What will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Coco<\/em><\/p>\n

What ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Coco<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Best Picture<\/h4>\n

Nominees:\u00a0<\/strong>Call Me by Your Name<\/em>,\u00a0Darkest Hour<\/em>,\u00a0Dunkirk<\/em>,\u00a0Get Out<\/em>,\u00a0Lady Bird<\/em>,\u00a0Phantom Thread<\/em>,\u00a0The Post<\/em>,\u00a0The Shape of Water<\/em>,\u00a0Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri<\/em><\/p>\n

Still here? Sigh. I think at this point I should invoke my right, established publicly and definitively last year by Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty, to get this award completely wrong and then correct it after the fact. (Hit \u201crefresh\u201d for updates as necessary.)<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

As I noted at the top, neither of the presumed frontrunners\u2014The Shape of Water<\/em>and\u00a0Three Billboards<\/em>\u2014feels to me like a normal frontrunner. That said, they are definitely the leading candidates of people whose job it is to determine these things. The\u00a0quants at fivethirtyeight.com<\/a>\u00a0have\u00a0Shape of Water\u00a0<\/em>as a slight favorite over\u00a0Three Billboards<\/em>; the\u00a0folks at goldderby.com<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0overall betting markets<\/a>lean slightly the other way. Keep that in mind when you make your picks.<\/p>\n

As for me, I just don\u2019t see it. The Best Picture race is extremely difficult to quantify because unlike all the other categories, it substitutes a weighted formula for a simple most-votes-wins model. (It\u2019s called \u201cinstant-runoff<\/a>\u201d voting.) The upshot is that a movie that is highly ranked by a large number of Academy voters can wind up beating one that gets more first-place votes.<\/p>\n

So I\u2019m going with my gut and picking\u00a0Get Out<\/em>, which I think will fare well with a large number of voters, including those who don\u2019t name it their first choice. It seems apt to the moment: Like\u00a0Black Panther<\/em>\u2014another film by a black director featuring\u00a0powerful racial themes<\/a>\u2014it dramatically exceeded both critical and box-office expectations. And it was, in my view, the\u00a0best film of the year<\/a>\u00a0by a solid margin.<\/p>\n

I should probably note here that the last time I broke hard against the critical consensus was when I picked\u00a0Avatar<\/em>\u00a0to beat\u00a0The Hurt Locker<\/em>\u00a0in 2010. I still think I made\u00a0a persuasive case<\/a>. But I was, of course, wrong. (And thank goodness:\u00a0Avatar<\/em>, which I loathed at the time, looks even worse in hindsight.) This time around, my pick and my heart are in the same place\u2014but that doesn\u2019t mean I\u2019ll be any more right than I was then.<\/p>\n

What will win:\u00a0<\/strong>Get Out<\/em><\/p>\n

What ought to win:\u00a0<\/strong>Get Out<\/em><\/p>\n

Source: theatlantic.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As I noted in my end-of-the-year\u00a0movie wrap-up\u00a0(which in addition to my top-10 list included such idiosyncratic awards as \u201cBest Letter Writer\u201d and \u201cMost Successful Mushroom Recipe\u201d), 2017 was an excellent year for film. And, for the most part, I think the Academy did a good job when it came to ...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":78117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4545],"tags":[4673],"class_list":["post-78097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-entertainment","tag-oscars-en"],"acf":false,"yoast_head":"\nWhat Will Win at the Oscars? - NGradio.gr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ngradio.gr\/en\/news-el\/entertainment\/will-win-oscars\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Will Win at the Oscars? - NGradio.gr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As I noted in my end-of-the-year\u00a0movie wrap-up\u00a0(which in addition to my top-10 list included such idiosyncratic awards as \u201cBest Letter Writer\u201d and \u201cMost Successful Mushroom Recipe\u201d), 2017 was an excellent year for film. 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